Valued at an estimated $60.92 billion, the U.S. dietary supplement market experienced a CAGR of 1.7% in the year 2022, according to Nutrition Business Journal (NBJ), dropping from a growth rate of more than 14% just one year prior.

“After the huge spike in 2020, we expected normalization,” said Claire Morton, senior industry analyst at NBJ. “We can’t maintain double-digit pandemic growth, but the effects of the economy and inflation drove the growth down significantly more than we previously expected.”

“The key question is whether we completely lost the boost from the pandemic, and the answer is no, despite a few rocky years, according to our projections made before and after the pandemic,” she added.

One of the biggest surprises, Morton noted during the “State of Supplements” session at Natural Products Expo West in March, was that growth in e-commerce began to dip substantially to 3.9%, from highs of over 80% in 2020, while there was relatively high growth in mass market (6.7%), MLM/network channels (5.2%), and practitioner channels (6.6%).

“We thought there would be a permanent behavior shift, but we’re seeing consumers return to brick-and-mortar channels,” Morton said.

In 2022, Amazon had a 35% share of vitamin and mineral supplements (VMS) sales and a 15% contribution to sales growth, noted Scott Dicker, market insights director at SPINS. In 2023, Amazon’s share of sales went down to 32% with an 8% contribution to growth. 

Higher Growth Areas

The sports nutrition category continues to rebound after a substantial COVID-19 slowdown, as exercise habits have largely normalized. According to Morton, this segment is set to increase by $2.34 billion from 2021-2025, at a CAGR of 6.5%, after reaching a market size of $8.2 billion in 2021.

Trends within the sports nutrition market include the addition of adaptogens and other ingredients into more conventional formulas, a focus on responsible animal sourcing, increasing plant-based protein options, and combining performance benefits with other conditions.

The fastest-growing areas of the sports nutrition category for 2023 include hydration and electrolyte supplements (+79%), pre-workouts (36.4%), and creatine (120.5%), according to Dicker.

“This category has long been focused on young male gym goers, but is expanding a great deal toward women, Generation X, and Boomers. We’ve been seeing softer and more all-encompassing marketing to give this category an entry point for everyone,” Dicker said. “A lot of this is coming from the performance nutrition space, and I really like to refer to this category more as active lifestyle nutrition—not everyone is playing sports while using these products.”

After years of slumping in sales, the weight management segment grew 9.9% to reach $6.6 billion in 2021, and is anticipated to grow at a 5.8% CAGR from 2021-2025 to increase in size by $1.67 billion, according to NBJ.

Economic Impact on Supplement Consumers

A November 2022 survey of supplement users from New Hope/NBJ, evaluated how economic turbulence was influencing purchase behavior, and where opportunities exist amid inflationary pressures.

According to survey results, 39% reported they are the same financially as they were a year ago, while 34% declared themselves worse off. Additionally, 39% of supplement users expect they will be the same financially in another year. More than half (59%) of consumers expect supplement prices to go up over the next 12 months.

Despite historic inflation, 50% of dietary supplement users said that recent cost increases had no impact on their current use, while only 9% reported rising prices have had a significant impact.

Further, consumers were more likely to “trade down” to lower cost supplements, rather than sacrifice their supplements altogether. Among other cost-saving strategies, consumers were most likely to switch to lower-priced products, buy store-brand supplements, reduce the number of supplement products they take, and trade down from organic/natural or premium brands, said Morton.

Experiential conditions, or conditions that can be felt acutely, are the most common health issues consumers report experiencing. According to survey responses, consumers are most likely to be contending regularly with stress (41%), trouble sleeping (37%), anxiety/depression (37%), fatigue (34%), weight management concerns (32%), and gut health issues (27%).

Because of the rise in experiential conditions, mood and mental health products are growing at high rates, including combination herb formulas (19.6% market share, 42.4% growth), hemp and CBD (10.9% market share, -11.3% growth), and ayurvedic herbs (5.5% market share, 68.1% growth).

Sleep has been another important category, which has been dominated by melatonin supplements (55% market share, 20.3% growth), and combination herb formulas (18.1% market share, 19.7% growth), while magnesium is carving out space with 3.1% market share to date and a growth rate of 13%.

Brain health is a growth area to watch according to Morton. Fish/animal oils (24.5% market share, -6.9% growth), specialty ingredients (18.6% market share, 10.7% growth), and combination herb formulas (9.7% market share, 14.2% growth) are key ingredient categories in this space.

Pulse Check

Across all age groups, people are seeking to balance physical activity, a healthy diet, sleep, spiritual and mental health, and community. However, that balance often feels precarious or out of reach, noted Nancy Coulter-Parker, content marketing director for New Hope Network as she discussed insights from the Inside the Bottle Survey, which featured in-depth conversations with consumers.

Participants between 22 and 34 are “struggling physically and mentally, and are in a time of transition,” she said. “They think of supplements mostly in relation to weight loss or exercise, and don’t always associate other benefits with supplements.”

“The entryway for this group is generally sports nutrition, exercise and meal plans, and the need for improved sleep,” Coulter-Parker added.

Consumers between the ages of 35 and 55 were more likely to be driven by recommendations from friends or doctors to purchase a supplement, and are more likely to shop at stores where they trust curations of products. They are more likely to shop for specific health conditions, and have a focus on healthy aging, movement, sleep issues, and stress issues, Coulter-Parker said.

Women in this 35-55 age group are also receptive to supplementation as a way to manage hormonal changes. People in this age range are also more likely to seek out dietary supplements as an alternative to taking pharmaceuticals.

Purchase decisions are influenced by several transitions in life, such as having children, leaving college and entering the workforce, retiring, going through menopause, and more.

“People are talking a lot about healthy aging and their health span. They are noticing changes in their bodies and want to stay disease-free, and keep moving as they get older,” Coulter-Parker said. “It’s not a lack of trust but a lack of understanding that prevents people from buying supplements, and there’s no clear pathway to follow for information.”

On that note, people have different priorities. They often evaluate supplements based on which ones they need versus which ones would be nice to have. Additionally, what consumers say they will do doesn’t always track with real behavior, Coulter-Parker noted. People underestimate how much trust they put in brands, and overestimate how much research they do on a given supplement, and while money is a factor, people become suspicious if something is too cheap.