Dr. A. Elizabeth Sloan09.01.07
Centrum Silver is now the top selling multivitamin in the U.S., and bubble gum and other flavors are making their way into the supplement aisle as savvy marketers target specific ethnic groups and their health vulnerabilities.
At the same time, the advent of in-store "minute clinics" in supermarkets and supercenters offers an unprecedented opportunity to cross-sell Rx medications with supplements and functional foods. Government inquiries into the safety of some prescriptions drugs-such as sleep aids, arthritis relief and children's cough medicines-have sent consumers scurrying for more natural and/or homeopathic solutions. And, with 40% of the population taking at least one Rx drug, and one in six taking three or more, concern for supplement/Rx drug interactions is bound to reach an all-time high1.
But the aging population may be just the shot in the arm the supplement industry needs. Simmons Market Research Bureau (SMRB) reports that those aged 65-74 were the top supplement users in 2006-indexing* 132 vs. 100 for the population overall-followed by those 75+ (index 129) and those aged 55-64 (119). Those 65-74 were also the most likely to use supplements more than once a day (180), significantly higher than the next closest age brackets: 75+ (157), 55-64 (147) and 45-54 (114). They were also most likely to use multi-formula products (129); just above those 55-65 (126) and 45-64 (112)2.
Most important, not only is one-third of the U.S. population already age 55 or older, but the U.S. Census Bureau projects that those aged 55-64 will grow 35%, and those 65+ will grow 26% by 2015. In fact, by 2015 107 million Americans will be over age 503.
ACNielsen reports that seven of the top 10 fastest growing global food/beverage categories were healthy, and that each grew by more than $1 billion in sales in 20064. Drinkable yogurt, up 18%, led the list, followed by fresh soups (17%); fresh fish/seafood (12%); alcoholic cider (11%); fresh ready-to-eat salads, baby formula and dairy-based drinks, each up 10%; and bottled water, fresh fruit and nuts, each up 9%. Innova Market Insights reports that "no additives/preservatives" represented the #1 positioning for new healthy products worldwide, followed by general wellness, low-fat, natural and organic (see Figure 1)5. Global Industry Analysts projects worldwide sales of organic food/beverages will hit $86 billion by 20096.
U.S. healthy food sales reached $120 billion last year, up over 7% according to the Nutrition Business Journal (NBJ). Lesser evil foods (e. g., reduced fat, etc.) remain the largest segment at $62 billion, up nearly 4%. The natural/organic sector hit $26 billion, up nearly 14%; functional foods topped $31 billion, up 10%; and U.S. healthy beverage sales were estimated at well over $17 billion7.
More than one-quarter of the most successful new food and beverage introductions, which completed a full year of sales by December 2006-and that made Information Resources, Inc.'s (IRI) Top 10 New Product Pacesetters list-delivered specific health benefits. Three in 10 (28%) carried an added nutrient claim (e.g., vitamins, calcium or soy); 28% reduced-calorie; 23% high fiber/whole grain; 17% reduced fat; 17% natural/organic; 14% no trans fat; 12% diet aid; and 8% increased energy or protein8.
Shopping for health behaviors are also at an all-time high. Weight significantly influenced 42% of shoppers' food purchasing decisions in 2006. In addition, according to the Food Marketing Institute (FMI), over one-third of shoppers (36%) were trying to reduce their risk of developing health conditions through their food purchases, 30% were following their doctor's advice, and 25% were looking to manage/treat a specific condition on their own9.
The Hartman Group found that those most involved in health/nutrition, core consumers were deliberately trying to add 12 ingredients to their daily diet, those in the mid-level nearly nine ingredients, and those more mildly involved (periphery) six ingredients (see Figure 2, pg. 38). These same groups are trying to avoid 11, nearly 10 and seven ingredients, respectively10.
Interest in healthy foods is also skewing younger. Those 4058 are now the least satisfied with their eating habits, weight and health, and the most likely to be making changes in their diets, according to Technomic11. The NPD Group reports that 25% of diners looking for healthier menu items in restaurants were ages 3549, 13% 1824, 17% 2534, 18% 5064, and 11% 65+12. Mintel says those ages 18-24 were the most likely to buy a functional food or beverage in 2006, and they favored fortified gums and bars, energy/sports drinks, smoothies and confectionery/snacks that enhance performance13.
Specialty supplements, which were up over 10%, led unit sales increases in food, drug and mass merchandisers, excluding Wal-Mart (year-end 3/26/07), vs. total supplements, which were up over 7%; herbals grew nearly 2%, according to IRI14. Essential fatty acids/omega 3 and co-enzyme Q10 (CoQ10), with dollar sales up over 30% and 16%, respectively, topped the list. Omega 3s now ranks as the fifth most frequently used supplement behind multivitamins, calcium, vitamin C and vitamin E. Vitamin B12, B complex, herbals, antioxidants and iron round out the top 10. Enzymes, collagen, melatonin, yeast, probiotics/acidophilus, 5-HTP, lutein and DHEA also posted strong gains15. Further, the 2006 NIH GAIT study verifying the effectiveness of glucosamine and chondroitin sent their sales soaring well over 5% in mass channels14.
Feeling the impact of fortified foods in mass channels (excluding Wal-Mart), IRI reported total unit sales of supplements fell nearly 4% (year-end 3/26/07), letter vitamins were down over 2%, multivitamins dropped over 3%, total minerals fell over 6%, calcium was down 8%, antioxidants were down 10%, multi-packs fell over 5% and stress nutrient formulas were down 33%. Vitamin A and D jumped over 13%, magnesium rose 5%, iron grew 4.5%, children's multivitamins were up 3.5% and B-complex was up over 1%14. Multi-herb combinations posted the largest gains in botanicals, followed by guarana, eyebright, devil's claw, cranberry and black cohosh15.
SPINS reports that dollar sales of herbal singles grew almost 13% in the mass market, herbal formulas were up 12%, homeopathic remedies fell over 7% and flower essences-a category to watch-jumped over 22%. In the natural/health food channel, they grew 10%, 10%, 3% and 11%, respectively16. Vitamin sales in the natural channel rose over 6% to $3.2 billion, minerals were up 5% with $742 million in sales, herbs/ botanicals rose over 4% to $1.6 billion, and specialty supplements were up 9% with $1.3 billion in sales17. Mail order supplement sales reached $1.3 billion in 2006, MLM/network sales were $4.4 billion, practitioner sales were $1.6 billion and Internet sales posted $601 million in sales per NBJ18.
And there's plenty of room for supplements to grow. Simmons reports that only 56% of adults, or 119 million, used nutritional supplements in 2006, flat for the past three years19. Sloan Trends TrendSense model predicts that omega 3s, antioxidants, folic acid, vitamin B6, B12, DHA, potassium and magnesium will remain strong mass market contenders. With bioavailability still among the hottest differentiators in fortified foods, expect inulin and other prebiotics, lactoferrin and isoflavones to gather steam. Datamonitor's ProductScan reports that the number of food products carrying an antioxidant claim jumped from 22 SKUs in 2003 to 1017 in 2006 and 709 through July 2007; reduced sodium from 446 in 2002 to 765 in 2006 and 611 through July 200720.
The numbers of older adults already suffering from chronic conditions is staggering, and with another 31 million turning age 65 in the next 10 years, these markets will grow larger still. IRI's 2006 "Med Profiler V" reports that nearly six out of 10 consumers aged 65+ (58%) already have arthritis, half (53%) high cholesterol, one-third osteoporosis (34%) and one in five (20%) diabetes; this applies to 46%, 44%, 23% and 17% of older Boomers aged 55-64, respectively21. HealthFocus reports that heart disease, cancer, tiredness, eye health and stress top the list of health issues that shoppers are very/extremely concerned about22 (see Figure 3).
As Americans become more leery of the risks and side effects associated with many Rx drugs, one of the fastest growing new markets will be natural pain relief. One in four adults suffered a day-long bout of pain in the past month23. In addition to arthritis, half of seniors suffer from joint, knee (32%) and neck pain (15%)-45%, 30% and 14%, respectively, of older Boomers also suffer from some kind of pain. More than one-quarter of those 55-64 have low back pain, and 15% of all adults suffer severe headaches or migraines.
Watch for natural foods-such as tart cherries-to play a greater role in arthritis care. This antioxidant-rich fruit has been shown to possess anti-inflammatory activity specific to arthritis and gout, and can also help maintain proper cholesterol, triglyceride and insulin/fasting glucose levels.
The National Sporting Goods Assn. reports that those 50+ are also the fastest growing group of exercisers24. As a result, the demand for muscular pain relief, athletic support and appropriately formulated sports beverages/bars and supplements for those 50+ will enjoy solid growth. With older exercisers often suffering from other health issues, such as heart disease or arthritis, the opportunities for targeted formulations are even more exciting.
With Boomers facing an increased risk of heart attacks and strokes after age 45, products and ingredients that enhance circulation-such as cocoa flavanols, which increase blood flow to the brain and possess anti-platelet activity to prevent the formation of deadly clots-will move into the spotlight. Sloan Trends TrendSense model indicates that the stroke prevention market has reached mainstream status and will be accelerated by AHA's Stroke Division's prevention campaign25 (see Figure 4). And, with continued emphasis on women and heart disease-and the aspirin regimen still not proven beneficial for women-demand will be stronger still. Inflammation, high blood pressure/pre-hypertension and bio-markers such as C-reactive protein are other fast-growing mainstream heart health segments.
Collectively, heart-related health issues topped the list of Rx prescriptions written in 2006-216 million prescriptions written for hypertension and 150 million for high cholesterol-followed by 205 million prescriptions written for allergies/asthma, 195 million for anxiety/depression, 156 million for pain management (muscular/joint), 115 million for arthritis, 86 million for infections (ear and urinary tract) and 86 million for diabetes26. Not surprisingly, consumers will be looking for supplements to alleviate drug side effects, such as leg and muscle cramps and those offering liver protection. Gallup projects that the incidence of leg cramps in women will increase another 14% from 2003 to 2013; 14% in men27. And, with many on Rx medications reluctant to take additional supplements and "overmedicate," doctor recommendations will be key for trial.
With more than 44 million-or 55%-of those 50+ already having low bone mass, 52 million will be afflicted by 2010. It's time for marketers and health professionals to agree on, treat and promote a pre-osteoporosis category, similar to pre-hypertension and pre-diabetes28. The men's bone health market continues to move into the spotlight, with almost 12 million men having low bone mass and 2 million actually having osteoporosis.
Marketers also need to carefully monitor changing demographics. For example, just six years ago, 35 million women were menopausal and 10 million were peri-menopausal. In 2005, 11 million were peri-menopausal, 18 million menopausal and 39 million post-menopausal. The latter is at far greater risk for heart disease/stroke, osteoporosis, depression and other ailments, representing all new marketing territory.
While various cancers, impotence, diabetes, macular degeneration and Alzheimer's also disproportionately affect the elderly, watch for a new set of conditions to emerge specific to much older adults, such as sarcopenia, or muscle wasting, irregularities in fat metabolism, high triglycerides, vitality, memory loss, colon issues, dry mouth (xerostomia) and dry eyes.
Over the past two years, it's the lifestyle markets that are showing the greatest increases. For example, the International Food Information Council (IFIC) reports that although general wellness and heart health are the top two reasons consumers currently buy functional foods, they'd be most interested in new products that improve mental performance-35% strongly believe that foods can be used to improve mental health, 41% somewhat believe29 (see Figure 5, pg. 42). HealthFocus reports that those extremely/ very concerned about depression jumped 8% from 2004 to 2006, lack of mental sharpness 5%, stress 3% and tiredness/lack of energy 3%22. And, with concern for mental performance and energy strong across all age groups, these markets will grow bigger still. In fact, GFK Roper found that energy was the top reason consumers made a dietary change in 200630.
With half of adults suffering from sleep problems several times a week-80% at least once a month-it is not necessarily shocking that sales of sleep aid liquids jumped 24% and tablets almost 13% (year-end 2/25/07), according to IRI31. With FDA calling for label changes on 13 Rx sleep aids and evidence showing the growing number of allergic reactions, more consumers are turning to natural solutions. IRI reports that five all-natural or homeopathic sleep aids-MidNite, which can be taken at any time of night; Hyland's Inc.'s Insomnia, Calms Forte and Calms Forte 4 Kids; Lovate Health Sciences' Sleep MD; and Green Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s Snorestop-rank among the best-selling sleep products. It is also important to note that two-thirds of overweight people have trouble sleeping several nights a week-54% use sleep aids vs. 19% of those of normal weight.
The vision category is also thriving as retailers serve older customers undergoing vision changes and dry eyes, as well as younger people capitalizing on the new contact lens technologies. HealthFocus reports concern for eye health jumped 4% in the last two years22. With 45% of the 40 million contact lens wearers concerned about infections, dryness and irritation, and 60% wearing their lens too long, it's not surprising that four of the top10 eye/lens care solutions experienced double-digit growth this year32.
Products that address digestive issues are also converting to more natural solutions. HealthFocus reports those very/ extremely concerned about gastrointestinal issues (GI) jumped 6% in the last two years22. While more than 70 million suffer from digestive problems, it's not surprising to see that sales of antacids and laxatives-the top two GI segments-have jumped over 10% and 6%, respectively (year-end 12/20/06)33. As the problems become more severe, marketers are responding with extra strength products, such as SenokotXTRA Extra Strength tablets. Sales of powdered digestive aids and enzymes increased almost 27% in mass channels to $78 million (year-end 12/30/06), while sales rose 17% in natural channels to $15 million34.
Although probiotics would fit nicely as a natural solution to digestive issues, the NPD Group reports that awareness of probiotics is fairly low (see Table 1, pg. 46)35. Dannon's Activia ranked 4th on IRI's Pacesetter products list (year-end 12/06), with $128 million in year-one sales, however, it is also important to note that it was backed by a $56 million dollar ad spend. Dean Foods, Land O'Lakes and Kraft have introduced probiotics cheeses. The new Probio-Wellness product line includes Whole Food Fiber, 5-Day Cleanse, Digestive Enzymes, Probiotic Cultures, Fruits & Veggies and Acid Balance.
Dental cavities are also increasing in children ages 6 to 12, and root cavities and periodontal issues are surfacing with greater frequency in those 50 and older. As a result, many consumers are turning to natural solutions. Sales of natural oral care products rose nearly 11% to $41 million; natural toothpastes and powders rose 11% to $26 million35. The Natural Dentist's Healthy Gums mouthwash/toothpaste touts flavors such as Sparkle Berry Blast. Wm. Wrigley and Co. introduced Orbit White Melon Breeze gum with teeth whitening benefits. Further, Wrigley's new research institute focuses on the role gum can play in relieving stress, managing weight, increasing mental alertness/concentration and improving oral health.
Lastly, from Coca-Cola/Nestle's fat-burning Enviga drink to dozens of 100-calorie snack packs, no other category seems to be undergoing a greater shift-and have more new opportunities-than the weight control sector. The NPD Group's Dieting Monitor reports that although 60% of Americans say they want to lose 20 pounds, only 26% of women and 19% of men were on a diet last year-an all-time low36. Some of the top diets reported were: my own diet (30%), diet prescribed by a doctor (12%), Weight Watchers 11%, low-fat diet 9%, low calorie diet 6.5% and Atkins 4.5%. Less than 4.5% of consumers used appetite suppressants, medication or diet pills; the South Beach Diet; sugar-free diets; or Slim-Fast.
Sloan Trends TrendSense reports that the metabolism concept has reached mass market status19. Health-driven dieting is another untapped segment. Simmons reports that of those who were watching their weight, 38% cited existing health conditions, such as cholesterol, blood sugar, hypertension, diabetes and heart disease as their motivation2. Phase 2 Starch Neutralizer was recently given a boost when FDA approved its claim as a starch blocker for weight control: "If used with a sensible diet and exercise: may reduce the enzymatic digestion of dietary starches." But, there is still skepticism too. HealthFocus reports that less than one in four believe that EGCG (from green tea) can enhance metabolism22.
The association between blood sugar control and weight has also reached mass market status, but the glycemic index has not, according to Sloan Trends19. While the blood sugar control market remains innately complicated, certain aspects of it-such as Metabolic Syndrome-have gone mainstream. HealthFocus reports those extremely/very concerned about diabetes rose 5% over the past two years22.
As the 72 million-member "Gen Y" or "Echo Boomer" group enters parenting age-coupled with tremendous growth in the Hispanic community-they're creating a baby boom projected to dwarf the World War II baby boom. The U.S Census projects that from 2005 to 2015, the number of children under age 5 will grow by 10%, those 611 4%, and 1217 3%3. Among Hispanics, the 0-6 population will grow by 22% and those 6-11 by 23%. By 2015, one-third of U.S. Hispanics will be under the age of 18. Today, 25 million kids are under age 5, 21 million 611, and 25 million 1217.
Packaged Facts projects the U.S. food and beverage market for kids age 3-11-not including candy-will grow from $15.5 billion in 2006 to $26.8 billion in 201137. One-quarter of teen girls ages 12-18 use supplements vs. 22% of teen boys2. Supplements and foods for before, during, and after pregnancy, as well as infant and toddler products are already in high demand. Formulating medications and natural personal care products for the very young is also a new trend. P & G's Vicks Vapor Rub is now made with aloe vera for infants. Beech Nut introduced a new line of Beech Nut Good Morning and Good Evening baby foods with DHA and ARA.
With 28% of parents admitting they have at least one overweight child-50% of children, tweens and teens are expected to be overweight by 2010-and concern over high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and diabetes in kids rising, "better-for-you" kids' foods will become big business. IRI "Kid's Report" indicates that sales of healthy kids' foods/beverages were three times that of their regular counterparts38. HealthFocus reports that 73% of mom's are very/extremely concerned about prevention of disease later in life for their children22.
The U.S. Hispanic population-which is projected to increase 29% by 2015 vs. 9% for the total population-is grossly under targeted by functional food and supplement marketers3. Hispanics are disproportionate consumers of nearly all functional beverages and Asian Americans are the most health conscious overall13. Many ethnic groups suffer disproportionately from various conditions, such as diabetes or lactose intolerance. In fact, the American Heart Association (AHA) recently called on the industry to reduce the risk of heart disease in Black Americans citing their high incidence of blood pressure39.
The following represent up-and-coming market segments that should offer fertile ground for functional food, supplement and natural product marketers.
Non-Antioxidant Phytochemicals. As the antioxidant superfood arena gets more competitive, savvy marketers are targeting phytochemicals that provide unique health benefits beyond antioxidant protection. The flavanoids category is one just crossing over into mass market status per Sloan Trends' TrendSense model (see Figure 6)19.
Multiple Risk Factors. Products that address more than one risk factor will be in high demand. For example, three in five who have type 2 diabetes have at least one other serious health problem, one in 10 have two, 15% three and 13% four or more. Twenty-two percent of overweight men and 33% of women also have high blood pressure; 19% and 31%, respectively, also have high cholesterol25,40.
Men's Health. Products geared toward men's grooming, and to some extent health, are starting to move into the limelight. Growth in men's skin care over the last few years has outpaced growth in women's. In fact, 20% of men were using skin care products in 2006, Overall the men's grooming market is estimated to be a $4-5 billion a year category 41.
Homeopathic Solutions. While only 3% of consumers are currently regular homeopathic consumers, this market segment is well positioned for growth. In natural product stores, homeopathic products grew 11% last year34. Simmons reports consumers who prefer alternative remedies are almost three times as likely (index 285) to use herbal supplements2.
Skin Cancer. With more than one million new cases per year, skin cancer is considered an epidemic. Look for a new generation of natural skin protection products, with particular emphasis on children and infants. The Skin Cancer Foundation notes that the strong link to skin cancer is related to sun exposure before age 18.NW
About the author: Dr. A. Elizabeth Sloan is the president of Sloan Trends, Inc., Escondido, CA, which is a consulting firm that offers trend-tracking and predictions, strategic counsel, and business-building ideas for food, supplement and pharmaceutical marketers. She can be reached at 760-741-9611; E-mail: sloantrend@sloantrend.com; Website: www.sloantrend.com
References:
1.CDC, 2006. National Center for Health Statistics, Center for Disease Control. www.chc.gov/nchs/.
2.Simmons, 2006. Fall and spring 2006 Experian Simmons National Consumer Studies. Simmons Market Research Bureau, New York. NY. www.smrb.com.
3.U.S. Census Bureau, 2005. Census. Current Population Reports & Projections. U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. www.census.gov.
4.ACNielsen, 2006. What's Hot around the Globe, ACNielsen, Schaumburg, IL. www.acnielsen.com.
5.Innova, 2007. Product Launches by Health Category. Innova Market Insights reports, The Netherlands. www.innova-food.com.
6.GIA, 2007. Global Organic Foods & Beverages Market to exceed $86 billion by 2009. Press release: July 23, 2007. Global Industry Analysts, San Jose, CA, www.stratgyr.com.
7.NBJ, 2007. Functional Foods IX: Healthy Foods. Nutrition Business Journal, XII (2/3): 1, 3 31.
8.IRI, 2007. New Product Pacesetters: New CPG Brand Leaders. Times & Trends March. Information Resources, Inc., Chicago, IL. www.infores.com.
9.FMI, 2006 Shopping for Health. Food Marketing Institute, Crystal City, VA. www.fmi.org.
10.The Hartman Group, 2007. Wellness Lifestyle Insights. The Hartman Group, Bellevue, WA. www.hartman-group.com.
11.Technomic. 2007. Generational marketing: dancing to different tunes. Am. Express Market Brief, April, pp.3-5.
12.Glazer, F. 2007. NPD: Patrons seeking healthful fare find more satisfaction. Nation's Restaurant News, 41(19):28.
13.Mintel, 2006. Functional Food and Beverages. Nov. 2006. Mintel International Chicago, IL. www.mintel.org.
14.Edmonds, B. Personal Care Labels Sell Confidence in Europe. Natural Foods Merchandiser, XXVII(6):54-56. www.naturalfoodmerchandiser.com
15.Soref, A. Lifestyle Choices Fuel Niche Supplements Market. Natural Foods Merchandiser, XXVII(6):52-53. www.naturalfoodmerchandiser.com
16.SPINS, 2007. Numbers Prove Supplements Vary by Channel. Natural Foods Merchandiser, XXVII(6):78. www.naturalfoodmerchandiser.com
17.Clute, M 2007. Retailers Evolve in Diverse Climates. Natural Food Merchandiser, XXVII(6):78.
18.NBJ, 2007. Direct Selling in the Nutrition Industry VII. Nutrition Business Journal, XII (4):1,312.
19.Sloan Trends, 2007. TrendSense Report. Sloan Trends, Inc. Escondido, Statistics.
20.Datamonitor, 2007. Datamonitor's ProductScan Online Database of New Products. Contact: Tom Vierhile, NY. www.productscan.com.
21.IRI. 2006. 55+: The new "must win" market. Times & Trends, June. Information Resources, Inc., Chicago. www.infores.com.
22.HealthFocus, 2007. U.S. 2007 Trend Report. HealthFocus International. St. Petersburg, FL. www.healthfocus.com.
23.HHS/CDC, 2007. Health, United States, 2006. CDC National Center for Health Statistics. Atlanta, GA. www.cuc.gov/nchs/jus06.htm.
24.NSGA, 2007. National Sporting Goods Association. Statistics and Information. National Sporting Goods Assn. North Palm Beach Fl. www.nsga.org.
25.AHA, 2007. Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2007 Update. American Heart Assn., Dallas TX. www.americanheart.com .
26.Blischok, T. 2007. Unleashing the Power of the Pharmacy. FMI Pharmacy Conference. May 7, 2007. Information Resources, Inc. Chicago, Il.
27.Gallup, 2003. Health Conditions Affecting Men & Women 2003-2013. Multi-Sponsor Surveys, Inc., Princeton NJ. www.multisponsor.com.
28.NOF, 2007. Slide Show for Health Professionals. National Osteoporosis Foundation. Washington, D.C. www.nof.org.
29.IFIC, 2007. 2007 Food & Health Survey. International Food Information Council. Washington, D.C. www.ific.org.
30.GfK Roper, 2007. Health & Well-Being. Roper Reports Monthly Client Teleconference. Thursday, April 26, 2007. Gfk Roper, NYC, NY. www.gfkamerica.com.
31.Anon., 2006. Sleep Aids Find a Ready Audience. Chain Drug Review 29(17):57-61.
32.The CDR/IRI H & BA Report. Chain Drug Review 29(11):177-234.
33.Anon., 2007. The CDR/IRI H & BA Report, Chain Drug Review 29(11): 177-234.
34.Spehar, C., 2007. Mineral Makeup Taps Earth's Inner Beauty. Natural Foods Merchandiser, XXVII(6):62-64.
35.NPD Group, 2007. The NPD Group/ Food and Beverage Buzz Monitor, March 2007. The NPD Group, Port Washington, NY. www.npdfoodworld.com,
36.NPD Group, 2007. Dieting in America at an All-time Low. Press release: Jan. 10, 2007 The NPD Group, Port Washington, NY. www.npdfoodworld.com
37.Packaged Facts, 2007. Kids Food & Beverage In The U.S. Sept. Packaged Facts. NYC. NY. www.packagedfacts.com.
38.IRI, 2007. IRI. 2006. Emerging consumer segments. Times & Trends, Dec. Information Resources Inc., Chicago, IL www.infores.com.
39.AHA, 2007. The Am. Heart Assn. Encourages African-Americans to Lower Their Risk of Heart Disease and Stroke. Press release. American Heart Assn., Dallas, TX.www.americanheart.com.
40. Assn. of Clinical Endocrinologists (AACE).
41. Anon., 2007. Men's skin care market. Chain Drug Review March 19, 2007, p. 50.
At the same time, the advent of in-store "minute clinics" in supermarkets and supercenters offers an unprecedented opportunity to cross-sell Rx medications with supplements and functional foods. Government inquiries into the safety of some prescriptions drugs-such as sleep aids, arthritis relief and children's cough medicines-have sent consumers scurrying for more natural and/or homeopathic solutions. And, with 40% of the population taking at least one Rx drug, and one in six taking three or more, concern for supplement/Rx drug interactions is bound to reach an all-time high1.
But the aging population may be just the shot in the arm the supplement industry needs. Simmons Market Research Bureau (SMRB) reports that those aged 65-74 were the top supplement users in 2006-indexing* 132 vs. 100 for the population overall-followed by those 75+ (index 129) and those aged 55-64 (119). Those 65-74 were also the most likely to use supplements more than once a day (180), significantly higher than the next closest age brackets: 75+ (157), 55-64 (147) and 45-54 (114). They were also most likely to use multi-formula products (129); just above those 55-65 (126) and 45-64 (112)2.
Most important, not only is one-third of the U.S. population already age 55 or older, but the U.S. Census Bureau projects that those aged 55-64 will grow 35%, and those 65+ will grow 26% by 2015. In fact, by 2015 107 million Americans will be over age 503.
Health is #1 Driver throughout Global Food Industry
ACNielsen reports that seven of the top 10 fastest growing global food/beverage categories were healthy, and that each grew by more than $1 billion in sales in 20064. Drinkable yogurt, up 18%, led the list, followed by fresh soups (17%); fresh fish/seafood (12%); alcoholic cider (11%); fresh ready-to-eat salads, baby formula and dairy-based drinks, each up 10%; and bottled water, fresh fruit and nuts, each up 9%. Innova Market Insights reports that "no additives/preservatives" represented the #1 positioning for new healthy products worldwide, followed by general wellness, low-fat, natural and organic (see Figure 1)5. Global Industry Analysts projects worldwide sales of organic food/beverages will hit $86 billion by 20096.
U.S. healthy food sales reached $120 billion last year, up over 7% according to the Nutrition Business Journal (NBJ). Lesser evil foods (e. g., reduced fat, etc.) remain the largest segment at $62 billion, up nearly 4%. The natural/organic sector hit $26 billion, up nearly 14%; functional foods topped $31 billion, up 10%; and U.S. healthy beverage sales were estimated at well over $17 billion7.
More than one-quarter of the most successful new food and beverage introductions, which completed a full year of sales by December 2006-and that made Information Resources, Inc.'s (IRI) Top 10 New Product Pacesetters list-delivered specific health benefits. Three in 10 (28%) carried an added nutrient claim (e.g., vitamins, calcium or soy); 28% reduced-calorie; 23% high fiber/whole grain; 17% reduced fat; 17% natural/organic; 14% no trans fat; 12% diet aid; and 8% increased energy or protein8.
Shopping for health behaviors are also at an all-time high. Weight significantly influenced 42% of shoppers' food purchasing decisions in 2006. In addition, according to the Food Marketing Institute (FMI), over one-third of shoppers (36%) were trying to reduce their risk of developing health conditions through their food purchases, 30% were following their doctor's advice, and 25% were looking to manage/treat a specific condition on their own9.
The Hartman Group found that those most involved in health/nutrition, core consumers were deliberately trying to add 12 ingredients to their daily diet, those in the mid-level nearly nine ingredients, and those more mildly involved (periphery) six ingredients (see Figure 2, pg. 38). These same groups are trying to avoid 11, nearly 10 and seven ingredients, respectively10.
Interest in healthy foods is also skewing younger. Those 4058 are now the least satisfied with their eating habits, weight and health, and the most likely to be making changes in their diets, according to Technomic11. The NPD Group reports that 25% of diners looking for healthier menu items in restaurants were ages 3549, 13% 1824, 17% 2534, 18% 5064, and 11% 65+12. Mintel says those ages 18-24 were the most likely to buy a functional food or beverage in 2006, and they favored fortified gums and bars, energy/sports drinks, smoothies and confectionery/snacks that enhance performance13.
Specialties Set the Pace
Specialty supplements, which were up over 10%, led unit sales increases in food, drug and mass merchandisers, excluding Wal-Mart (year-end 3/26/07), vs. total supplements, which were up over 7%; herbals grew nearly 2%, according to IRI14. Essential fatty acids/omega 3 and co-enzyme Q10 (CoQ10), with dollar sales up over 30% and 16%, respectively, topped the list. Omega 3s now ranks as the fifth most frequently used supplement behind multivitamins, calcium, vitamin C and vitamin E. Vitamin B12, B complex, herbals, antioxidants and iron round out the top 10. Enzymes, collagen, melatonin, yeast, probiotics/acidophilus, 5-HTP, lutein and DHEA also posted strong gains15. Further, the 2006 NIH GAIT study verifying the effectiveness of glucosamine and chondroitin sent their sales soaring well over 5% in mass channels14.
Feeling the impact of fortified foods in mass channels (excluding Wal-Mart), IRI reported total unit sales of supplements fell nearly 4% (year-end 3/26/07), letter vitamins were down over 2%, multivitamins dropped over 3%, total minerals fell over 6%, calcium was down 8%, antioxidants were down 10%, multi-packs fell over 5% and stress nutrient formulas were down 33%. Vitamin A and D jumped over 13%, magnesium rose 5%, iron grew 4.5%, children's multivitamins were up 3.5% and B-complex was up over 1%14. Multi-herb combinations posted the largest gains in botanicals, followed by guarana, eyebright, devil's claw, cranberry and black cohosh15.
SPINS reports that dollar sales of herbal singles grew almost 13% in the mass market, herbal formulas were up 12%, homeopathic remedies fell over 7% and flower essences-a category to watch-jumped over 22%. In the natural/health food channel, they grew 10%, 10%, 3% and 11%, respectively16. Vitamin sales in the natural channel rose over 6% to $3.2 billion, minerals were up 5% with $742 million in sales, herbs/ botanicals rose over 4% to $1.6 billion, and specialty supplements were up 9% with $1.3 billion in sales17. Mail order supplement sales reached $1.3 billion in 2006, MLM/network sales were $4.4 billion, practitioner sales were $1.6 billion and Internet sales posted $601 million in sales per NBJ18.
And there's plenty of room for supplements to grow. Simmons reports that only 56% of adults, or 119 million, used nutritional supplements in 2006, flat for the past three years19. Sloan Trends TrendSense model predicts that omega 3s, antioxidants, folic acid, vitamin B6, B12, DHA, potassium and magnesium will remain strong mass market contenders. With bioavailability still among the hottest differentiators in fortified foods, expect inulin and other prebiotics, lactoferrin and isoflavones to gather steam. Datamonitor's ProductScan reports that the number of food products carrying an antioxidant claim jumped from 22 SKUs in 2003 to 1017 in 2006 and 709 through July 2007; reduced sodium from 446 in 2002 to 765 in 2006 and 611 through July 200720.
The Plot Sickens
The numbers of older adults already suffering from chronic conditions is staggering, and with another 31 million turning age 65 in the next 10 years, these markets will grow larger still. IRI's 2006 "Med Profiler V" reports that nearly six out of 10 consumers aged 65+ (58%) already have arthritis, half (53%) high cholesterol, one-third osteoporosis (34%) and one in five (20%) diabetes; this applies to 46%, 44%, 23% and 17% of older Boomers aged 55-64, respectively21. HealthFocus reports that heart disease, cancer, tiredness, eye health and stress top the list of health issues that shoppers are very/extremely concerned about22 (see Figure 3).
As Americans become more leery of the risks and side effects associated with many Rx drugs, one of the fastest growing new markets will be natural pain relief. One in four adults suffered a day-long bout of pain in the past month23. In addition to arthritis, half of seniors suffer from joint, knee (32%) and neck pain (15%)-45%, 30% and 14%, respectively, of older Boomers also suffer from some kind of pain. More than one-quarter of those 55-64 have low back pain, and 15% of all adults suffer severe headaches or migraines.
Watch for natural foods-such as tart cherries-to play a greater role in arthritis care. This antioxidant-rich fruit has been shown to possess anti-inflammatory activity specific to arthritis and gout, and can also help maintain proper cholesterol, triglyceride and insulin/fasting glucose levels.
The National Sporting Goods Assn. reports that those 50+ are also the fastest growing group of exercisers24. As a result, the demand for muscular pain relief, athletic support and appropriately formulated sports beverages/bars and supplements for those 50+ will enjoy solid growth. With older exercisers often suffering from other health issues, such as heart disease or arthritis, the opportunities for targeted formulations are even more exciting.
With Boomers facing an increased risk of heart attacks and strokes after age 45, products and ingredients that enhance circulation-such as cocoa flavanols, which increase blood flow to the brain and possess anti-platelet activity to prevent the formation of deadly clots-will move into the spotlight. Sloan Trends TrendSense model indicates that the stroke prevention market has reached mainstream status and will be accelerated by AHA's Stroke Division's prevention campaign25 (see Figure 4). And, with continued emphasis on women and heart disease-and the aspirin regimen still not proven beneficial for women-demand will be stronger still. Inflammation, high blood pressure/pre-hypertension and bio-markers such as C-reactive protein are other fast-growing mainstream heart health segments.
Collectively, heart-related health issues topped the list of Rx prescriptions written in 2006-216 million prescriptions written for hypertension and 150 million for high cholesterol-followed by 205 million prescriptions written for allergies/asthma, 195 million for anxiety/depression, 156 million for pain management (muscular/joint), 115 million for arthritis, 86 million for infections (ear and urinary tract) and 86 million for diabetes26. Not surprisingly, consumers will be looking for supplements to alleviate drug side effects, such as leg and muscle cramps and those offering liver protection. Gallup projects that the incidence of leg cramps in women will increase another 14% from 2003 to 2013; 14% in men27. And, with many on Rx medications reluctant to take additional supplements and "overmedicate," doctor recommendations will be key for trial.
With more than 44 million-or 55%-of those 50+ already having low bone mass, 52 million will be afflicted by 2010. It's time for marketers and health professionals to agree on, treat and promote a pre-osteoporosis category, similar to pre-hypertension and pre-diabetes28. The men's bone health market continues to move into the spotlight, with almost 12 million men having low bone mass and 2 million actually having osteoporosis.
Marketers also need to carefully monitor changing demographics. For example, just six years ago, 35 million women were menopausal and 10 million were peri-menopausal. In 2005, 11 million were peri-menopausal, 18 million menopausal and 39 million post-menopausal. The latter is at far greater risk for heart disease/stroke, osteoporosis, depression and other ailments, representing all new marketing territory.
While various cancers, impotence, diabetes, macular degeneration and Alzheimer's also disproportionately affect the elderly, watch for a new set of conditions to emerge specific to much older adults, such as sarcopenia, or muscle wasting, irregularities in fat metabolism, high triglycerides, vitality, memory loss, colon issues, dry mouth (xerostomia) and dry eyes.
Lifestyle Markets See Greatest Lift
Over the past two years, it's the lifestyle markets that are showing the greatest increases. For example, the International Food Information Council (IFIC) reports that although general wellness and heart health are the top two reasons consumers currently buy functional foods, they'd be most interested in new products that improve mental performance-35% strongly believe that foods can be used to improve mental health, 41% somewhat believe29 (see Figure 5, pg. 42). HealthFocus reports that those extremely/ very concerned about depression jumped 8% from 2004 to 2006, lack of mental sharpness 5%, stress 3% and tiredness/lack of energy 3%22. And, with concern for mental performance and energy strong across all age groups, these markets will grow bigger still. In fact, GFK Roper found that energy was the top reason consumers made a dietary change in 200630.
With half of adults suffering from sleep problems several times a week-80% at least once a month-it is not necessarily shocking that sales of sleep aid liquids jumped 24% and tablets almost 13% (year-end 2/25/07), according to IRI31. With FDA calling for label changes on 13 Rx sleep aids and evidence showing the growing number of allergic reactions, more consumers are turning to natural solutions. IRI reports that five all-natural or homeopathic sleep aids-MidNite, which can be taken at any time of night; Hyland's Inc.'s Insomnia, Calms Forte and Calms Forte 4 Kids; Lovate Health Sciences' Sleep MD; and Green Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s Snorestop-rank among the best-selling sleep products. It is also important to note that two-thirds of overweight people have trouble sleeping several nights a week-54% use sleep aids vs. 19% of those of normal weight.
The vision category is also thriving as retailers serve older customers undergoing vision changes and dry eyes, as well as younger people capitalizing on the new contact lens technologies. HealthFocus reports concern for eye health jumped 4% in the last two years22. With 45% of the 40 million contact lens wearers concerned about infections, dryness and irritation, and 60% wearing their lens too long, it's not surprising that four of the top10 eye/lens care solutions experienced double-digit growth this year32.
Products that address digestive issues are also converting to more natural solutions. HealthFocus reports those very/ extremely concerned about gastrointestinal issues (GI) jumped 6% in the last two years22. While more than 70 million suffer from digestive problems, it's not surprising to see that sales of antacids and laxatives-the top two GI segments-have jumped over 10% and 6%, respectively (year-end 12/20/06)33. As the problems become more severe, marketers are responding with extra strength products, such as SenokotXTRA Extra Strength tablets. Sales of powdered digestive aids and enzymes increased almost 27% in mass channels to $78 million (year-end 12/30/06), while sales rose 17% in natural channels to $15 million34.
Although probiotics would fit nicely as a natural solution to digestive issues, the NPD Group reports that awareness of probiotics is fairly low (see Table 1, pg. 46)35. Dannon's Activia ranked 4th on IRI's Pacesetter products list (year-end 12/06), with $128 million in year-one sales, however, it is also important to note that it was backed by a $56 million dollar ad spend. Dean Foods, Land O'Lakes and Kraft have introduced probiotics cheeses. The new Probio-Wellness product line includes Whole Food Fiber, 5-Day Cleanse, Digestive Enzymes, Probiotic Cultures, Fruits & Veggies and Acid Balance.
Dental cavities are also increasing in children ages 6 to 12, and root cavities and periodontal issues are surfacing with greater frequency in those 50 and older. As a result, many consumers are turning to natural solutions. Sales of natural oral care products rose nearly 11% to $41 million; natural toothpastes and powders rose 11% to $26 million35. The Natural Dentist's Healthy Gums mouthwash/toothpaste touts flavors such as Sparkle Berry Blast. Wm. Wrigley and Co. introduced Orbit White Melon Breeze gum with teeth whitening benefits. Further, Wrigley's new research institute focuses on the role gum can play in relieving stress, managing weight, increasing mental alertness/concentration and improving oral health.
Lastly, from Coca-Cola/Nestle's fat-burning Enviga drink to dozens of 100-calorie snack packs, no other category seems to be undergoing a greater shift-and have more new opportunities-than the weight control sector. The NPD Group's Dieting Monitor reports that although 60% of Americans say they want to lose 20 pounds, only 26% of women and 19% of men were on a diet last year-an all-time low36. Some of the top diets reported were: my own diet (30%), diet prescribed by a doctor (12%), Weight Watchers 11%, low-fat diet 9%, low calorie diet 6.5% and Atkins 4.5%. Less than 4.5% of consumers used appetite suppressants, medication or diet pills; the South Beach Diet; sugar-free diets; or Slim-Fast.
Sloan Trends TrendSense reports that the metabolism concept has reached mass market status19. Health-driven dieting is another untapped segment. Simmons reports that of those who were watching their weight, 38% cited existing health conditions, such as cholesterol, blood sugar, hypertension, diabetes and heart disease as their motivation2. Phase 2 Starch Neutralizer was recently given a boost when FDA approved its claim as a starch blocker for weight control: "If used with a sensible diet and exercise: may reduce the enzymatic digestion of dietary starches." But, there is still skepticism too. HealthFocus reports that less than one in four believe that EGCG (from green tea) can enhance metabolism22.
The association between blood sugar control and weight has also reached mass market status, but the glycemic index has not, according to Sloan Trends19. While the blood sugar control market remains innately complicated, certain aspects of it-such as Metabolic Syndrome-have gone mainstream. HealthFocus reports those extremely/very concerned about diabetes rose 5% over the past two years22.
Demographic Driven Opportunities
As the 72 million-member "Gen Y" or "Echo Boomer" group enters parenting age-coupled with tremendous growth in the Hispanic community-they're creating a baby boom projected to dwarf the World War II baby boom. The U.S Census projects that from 2005 to 2015, the number of children under age 5 will grow by 10%, those 611 4%, and 1217 3%3. Among Hispanics, the 0-6 population will grow by 22% and those 6-11 by 23%. By 2015, one-third of U.S. Hispanics will be under the age of 18. Today, 25 million kids are under age 5, 21 million 611, and 25 million 1217.
Packaged Facts projects the U.S. food and beverage market for kids age 3-11-not including candy-will grow from $15.5 billion in 2006 to $26.8 billion in 201137. One-quarter of teen girls ages 12-18 use supplements vs. 22% of teen boys2. Supplements and foods for before, during, and after pregnancy, as well as infant and toddler products are already in high demand. Formulating medications and natural personal care products for the very young is also a new trend. P & G's Vicks Vapor Rub is now made with aloe vera for infants. Beech Nut introduced a new line of Beech Nut Good Morning and Good Evening baby foods with DHA and ARA.
With 28% of parents admitting they have at least one overweight child-50% of children, tweens and teens are expected to be overweight by 2010-and concern over high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and diabetes in kids rising, "better-for-you" kids' foods will become big business. IRI "Kid's Report" indicates that sales of healthy kids' foods/beverages were three times that of their regular counterparts38. HealthFocus reports that 73% of mom's are very/extremely concerned about prevention of disease later in life for their children22.
The U.S. Hispanic population-which is projected to increase 29% by 2015 vs. 9% for the total population-is grossly under targeted by functional food and supplement marketers3. Hispanics are disproportionate consumers of nearly all functional beverages and Asian Americans are the most health conscious overall13. Many ethnic groups suffer disproportionately from various conditions, such as diabetes or lactose intolerance. In fact, the American Heart Association (AHA) recently called on the industry to reduce the risk of heart disease in Black Americans citing their high incidence of blood pressure39.
To Watch & Work On
The following represent up-and-coming market segments that should offer fertile ground for functional food, supplement and natural product marketers.
Non-Antioxidant Phytochemicals. As the antioxidant superfood arena gets more competitive, savvy marketers are targeting phytochemicals that provide unique health benefits beyond antioxidant protection. The flavanoids category is one just crossing over into mass market status per Sloan Trends' TrendSense model (see Figure 6)19.
Multiple Risk Factors. Products that address more than one risk factor will be in high demand. For example, three in five who have type 2 diabetes have at least one other serious health problem, one in 10 have two, 15% three and 13% four or more. Twenty-two percent of overweight men and 33% of women also have high blood pressure; 19% and 31%, respectively, also have high cholesterol25,40.
Men's Health. Products geared toward men's grooming, and to some extent health, are starting to move into the limelight. Growth in men's skin care over the last few years has outpaced growth in women's. In fact, 20% of men were using skin care products in 2006, Overall the men's grooming market is estimated to be a $4-5 billion a year category 41.
Homeopathic Solutions. While only 3% of consumers are currently regular homeopathic consumers, this market segment is well positioned for growth. In natural product stores, homeopathic products grew 11% last year34. Simmons reports consumers who prefer alternative remedies are almost three times as likely (index 285) to use herbal supplements2.
Skin Cancer. With more than one million new cases per year, skin cancer is considered an epidemic. Look for a new generation of natural skin protection products, with particular emphasis on children and infants. The Skin Cancer Foundation notes that the strong link to skin cancer is related to sun exposure before age 18.NW
About the author: Dr. A. Elizabeth Sloan is the president of Sloan Trends, Inc., Escondido, CA, which is a consulting firm that offers trend-tracking and predictions, strategic counsel, and business-building ideas for food, supplement and pharmaceutical marketers. She can be reached at 760-741-9611; E-mail: sloantrend@sloantrend.com; Website: www.sloantrend.com
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