But, calcium sales have slowed in recent years. In 2007, calcium fell off the “top 10” list of the most sought after health claims on food packages (FMI, 2009). Only one in five (22%) consumers looked for calcium on the nutrition label, down from 2006 (IFIC, 2009). In 2007, glucosamine surpassed calcium as the second best-selling supplement in mass channels, behind various multivitamin formulas (IRI, 2008-09). And globally the introduction of new functional food/beverages with a calcium claim fell to 818 in 2009 from 981 in 2007 (Innova Market Insights, 2009).
Market Potential
According to Sloan Trends’ TrendSense model, the marketability of calcium or vitamin D shows no signs of slowing down, especially given the bioavailability angle. Although enormous—100,000+ new studies per year—Medical Counts and research activity for calcium have been essentially flat over the past decade, keeping Consumer Counts relatively stable to declining, but at a large Level 2 mass-market level from 2004-2007.
However, when vitamin D became a new mass market opportunity, moving into the Commercialization Phase in late 2006/early 2007, coupled with a simultaneous crossover of the concept of bioavailability into the Popularization Phases (when it would become a “hot” concept for the health food channel and among very health-conscious/condition-specific consumers), the calcium market was set to benefit from its critical relationship with vitamin D.
Vitamin D and bioavailability crossed over the Medical Threshold more than a decade ago, which signaled the beginning of a long-term sustainable trend. Perhaps most exciting is that the renewed vigor in this now inter-dependant market sector has spurred significantly more research activity in the traditional calcium category, which will likely identify/solidify additional health linkages.