While market upheavals that erupted in 2020 have begun to settle in some cases, the pandemic’s impact on the dietary supplement industry is likely to reverberate for years. Principally, consumers are adapting to life in the era of COVID-19—which accelerated online buying—by opting for preventive and personalized health and wellness products.

Overall, expect staggering growth rates seen over the last year to come back down to earth, said Nutrition Business Journal Content & Insights Director Bill Giebler during SupplySide East in Secaucus, NJ, on Aug. 24. Nonetheless, with an estimated $7 billion added to the dietary supplements industry’s sales in 2020 alone, NBJ still anticipates the overall supplements industry will be $1.8 billion larger in 2024 compared to what had been estimated prior to COVID-19.
 
While consumers are focused on bolstering resilience to a variety of health issues, there is a growing dissatisfaction among Americans with their overall health and well-being. One NBJ poll found that 21% of all U.S. consumers in 2021 are either dissatisfied or extremely dissatisfied with their current health.
 
“This goes even beyond the conditions that came into focus during the pandemic,” Giebler said. “We have a nation that says ‘we aren’t as healthy as we need to be,’ and it’s attitudes like these which we’re dependent on as an industry.”
 
Charting the Course
The shift in sales from brick-and-mortar to online channels will continue to yield a great deal of data that will allow companies to become much more agile in meeting consumer needs, said Dan Harari of ClearCut Analytics, a retail analytics company which specializes in Amazon data.
 
There is plenty of information to apply toward product development in the immediate future, especially from the year-over-year (YOY) growth rates of Amazon sales beginning in June 2018 and ending in May 2021. “Amazon data is about 2 years ahead when it comes to trends as compared to the data from mass and specialty channels,” Harari said.
 
“Amazon has an infinite shelf size,” he added, “it’s filled with both legacy brands and digitally-native newer brands that are quickly gaining market share from the competition.”
 
When it comes to keeping tabs on the immune health boom, Harari said vitamin D and zinc have both been resilient despite a decline in growth seen in other immune health products. These two ingredients in particular will be key components in products formulated to support general wellness.
 
While some ingredients are experiencing declines in sales compared to 2020, others are still growing steadily due to newly solidified consumer bases. Apple cider vinegar, for example, continues to experience steady growth on Amazon, Harari said, citing wider availability of gummy delivery formats. Melatonin is another ingredient expected to continue selling based on current data.
 
Collagen, which has been growing steadily for several years, is now one of the top 5 VMS categories, still achieving a 63% YOY growth rate. “This is really remarkable,” Harari said. “While there are bigger players dominating this area, and it’s an expensive area to enter, we believe there is still room for new players.”
 
Harari pointed to two key “sleeper” botanicals set for serious growth in the coming years: blackcurrant and ashwagandha. The former is currently experiencing a 91% YOY growth rate. While ashwagandha is a more well-established botanical, it is still a great entry point for brands with a current sales growth rate of 73%.
 
Lastly, Harari pointed to amino acids, a sub-category dominated by branched-chain amino acid formulas used in sports nutrition. In January and February 2020, this category saw a significant dip in sales, but shortly entered into a 34% YOY growth period characterized as slower but steadier than other top sellers in the pandemic era.
 
Shifts in Marketing Strategies
While less quantitatively defined, Giebler broke down some of the shifting trends he has observed in the way nutraceutical products are marketed, and reasons why some companies are taking new approaches.
 
Next-gen brand names will be more reflective of health benefits, he said, as consumers no longer wish to be sold on a condition they have, and instead want to know what a product can offer.
 
Still, consumers are well-aware that certain products are being optimized for specific health conditions. Quality of ingredients is of utmost importance, which means branded or proprietary ingredients will continue to be a serious differentiator moving forward.
 
Likewise, 2021 and onward may see a new advent of personalized nutrition, following some stutter-steps seen in 2020, Giebler said. “We’re seeing a move to condition-specific supplements, but also to maximal personalization with things like genetic and microbiome testing. Survey-based personalized nutrition basically makes up the whole pie at the moment, in which companies make general assessments based on survey responses and provide consumers with products based on apparent needs. I think personalized nutrition dipped in 2020 because people were rushing to the store to get their hands on whatever ingredient was popular, but now people are tuning into factors like age, sex, family history, and personal test results.”
 
The nutraceuticals industry will have to reconsider CBD’s place in the market, Giebler suggested, based on a surprising downturn compared to many expectations. While some were projecting CBD sales would double in 2020, an unclear legal future and other pandemic factors caused a decline to a growth rate of 5.4%. This was especially surprising given that products for mood, sleep, and stress had a triumphant year on the whole.
 
“CBD is certainly not a waste of time, or a bomb, or a bust,” Giebler said. “It’s still the number-one herb/botanical. But it’s moving away from being a sensation to becoming a standard ingredient. ‘CBD companies’ may fade away; that is, CBD-exclusive companies will branch out from the single ingredient and become supplement companies. We don’t have ‘ashwagandha companies’ or ‘echinacea companies,’ and by and large we see CBD companies launching non-CBD formulas while legacy companies are bringing CBD in. This is just what happens when an ingredient becomes mass-market-available.”